CANNES, France -- With not one, but two "systemic conflicts" dominating the global stage, Tina Fordham, geopolitical strategist and founder of consultancy Fordham Global Foresight, urged the luxury travel industry to brace for what she called a "geopolitical risk supercycle" during the International Luxury Travel Market's (ILTM) annual event here.
"The last 30 years has been the most peaceful and prosperous period in our history," Fordham told attendees during the luxury travel trade show's Opening Forum. "But I can say, with relatively high conviction, that we're entering a period that is much more complex from an economic, financial, social and political perspective than we've ever experienced in our lifetimes."
Fordham cited impact from wars between Russia and Ukraine and Israel and Hamas as well as the looming threat of escalating China-Taiwan tensions.
And while Fordham acknowledged that the past three decades have hardly been devoid of war, she contended that the current wave of instability has the potential to be more disruptive than other conflicts in recent memory.
Moreover, 2024 is forecasted to be the "biggest election year in human history," Fordham said, with significant elections in the U.S., Taiwan and the U.K. contributing to a broader sense of uncertainty.
"We need to be prepared for an extended period of geopolitical disruption," Fordham said.
Despite this somber sentiment, Fordham reassured attendees that there remains reason for optimism within the luxury travel sector.
"If I was really worried, I would call it the tipping point," she said, labeling this juncture an "inflection point" instead.
"'Inflection point' is meant to convey a sense of the multiple possibilities," Fordham said. "The world is still an amazing place, and people want to get out and see it. I wonder how many clients are making sure they take advantage of the opportunity to go see things before there are more conflicts and other factors that might curtail movement."
The experiential shift
Future opportunities were also a focus for Opening Forum speaker Aaron Lau, founder and CEO of technology and branding firm Gusto Collective.
According to Lau, the future of luxury travel will hinge largely on a seismic shift in consumer demographics. He cited recent data from a YouGov Global white paper indicating that younger consumers, specifically those ages 18 to 34, are more likely to view travel as something that's become more important since the pandemic.
But with younger consumers less tied to traditional luxury ideas related solely to brand or ownership of goods, travel companies will need to adapt to what Lau described as "a luxury paradigm shift."
"New luxury, defined by Gen Z consumers, is all about meaning and expression," Lau said. "It's about social capital, but it's also about storytelling. They're looking for experiences, and there's no better way to get that experience than luxury travel."
Experiential travel was similarly front and center for speaker James Wallman, CEO of the World Experience Organization, who heralded the start of what he called the "experience revolution": the current move away from materialism and toward experientialism as a "huge sociocultural inflection point."
"The consumer revolution based on materialism transformed our standard of living over the last hundred years," Wallman said. "And I think the experience revolution will transform quality of life. Just as our ancestors created this amazing idea with materialism and the consumer revolution that have made us so wealthy, it's our opportunity -- your opportunity -- to create experientialism."